5 Reasons Robots Will Create Jobs, Not Take Them

As you may have read in my recent article 6 Big Challenges to Solve for Australia’s Robotics Industry, I didn’t know much about the robotics industry until late last year when a chance encounter crystallised my aspirations to learn more and get involved. And, since my appointment as Company Secretary for the peak body for robotics in Australia, Robotics Australia Group (RAG), I have certainly been doing both!

One of the recurring narratives that RAG has determined to address is that advancements in robotics, automation and artificial intelligence will take jobs away from people who need them. These concerns, however, are misguided and here are 5 reasons to shift the narrative so we can capitalise on the benefits these technologies will bring both from a financial and a social perspective:

1. Robots need humans

Jim Stanford, Economist and Director for the Centre for Future Work, recently published The Robots are NOT coming (And why that’s a bad thing…), in which he points out that “There is much human labour required in developing, engineering, manufacturing, installing, operating and maintaining robots … New technologies, once they are invented and deployed, typically open up opportunities for new forms of work and production … In this sense, new technologies can be a complement for labour, rather than just a substitute.“

In its 2019 report, Humans Wanted: Robots Need You, ManpowerGroup confirms its research shows 87% of employers plan to increase or maintain headcount as a result of automation. This is the third consecutive year such encouraging results have been received and it indicates that, rather than reducing employment opportunities, investing in automation is creating jobs.

In manufacturing and production, the ManpowerGroup report indicates headcount for traditional jobs will decrease by 20% but that this will be offset by a headcount increase of 25% in new jobs. With the skills in demand being managing machines and complex problem solving.

This is supported by research conducted by A.T. Kearney and Drishti. The joint publication, The State of Human Factory Analytics, reports more than 72% of factory tasks are performed by humans and this is unlikely to change much in the foreseeable future. I like this quote from Doug Neely, Director of advanced monozukuri research at Yazaki North America: “Machines don’t innovate anything. Our people are the source of all of our competitiveness.“

And I love this article, Even In The Robot Age, Manufacturers Need The Human Touch, about the Volvo assembly line which highlights all the areas where humans are unlikely to ever be replaced. For example, robots with sensors may be deployed to test the spot welds but quality control requires a human to run their hands over the surface of the metal body to feel for imperfections.

That article also hints at Tesla’s cautionary tale. Tesla’s Model 3 assembly line was widely regarded as one of the most robotics-driven on the planet. But when production issues arose, reducing production capacity from the anticipated 5,000 per week down to around 2,000 per week, humans were deployed to replace the robots! A CBS News article quotes Elon Musk as saying: “We had this crazy, complex network of conveyor belts….And it was not working, so we got rid of that whole thing.“

2. Robots protect humans from dangerous tasks

Robots can boldly go where it is too risky to send humans. Think: mine shaft collapse rescue, nuclear disaster clean-up, firefighting, bomb disposal or preliminary explorations of Mars.

Ok, so these are all scenarios where robots definitely will (and already do) take jobs away from humans. But I am pretty sure the humans that would have been sent into the fray in the past will be pleased to have a robot taking point going into those dangerous environments from now on.

A contemporary example is Israel’s use of the assistive robot temi to help in the fight against COVID-19. Temi’s deployment on hospital wards has not impacted front line heath workers’ jobs. On the contrary, it has made them safer and has, in fact, created new jobs for those involved with the deployment on site.

3. Robots will reverse the decline in productivity

If you weren’t aware of it, Australia’s economy has been under pressure for years. Our strengths in certain areas, such as extraction and export of unprocessed raw materials, have been successful in carrying our economy forward and on the face of it we’ve done well. But if you dig a little deeper, flaws become apparent and COVID-19 has shone a spotlight on these.

In an article dated 30 October 2019, Mark Thirlwell, Chief Economist for the AICD, noted: “Growth outperformance has been a key part of Australia’s recent economic story. We’ve just racked up a record 112 quarters of recession-free expansion. And, partly as a result, we’ve also grown faster than most of our peers.“

However, he goes on to say: “the economy’s current disappointing growth performance is also reflective of a sustained period of lacklustre productivity growth. The rate of growth in labour productivity has been sliding since 2011–12, slowing to a crawl (just 0.3 per cent) in 2017–18 and then contracting by 0.1 per cent in 2018–19.” (What has happened to Australia’s economic growth)

In a more recent article, John Edwards succinctly states: “Whatever was good and bad about the Australian economy in January 2020 is also good and bad today. The problems presented by the pandemic — unemployment, rising debt levels, low interest rates in advanced economies, and the US–China quarrel — are mostly amplifications of problems that existed prior to the COVID-19 crisis. … In the three or four years prior to the emergence of the novel coronavirus, Australia had experienced weak growth in household consumption and business investment, and unsatisfactorily high unemployment levels. It faces the same problems now, but on a bigger scale.” (The Costs of COVID: Astralia’s Economic Prospects in a Wounded World)

With the current crisis exacerbating economic pressures, leaders in the business community and government alike are being forced to take action to mitigate these weaknesses. The strengths we previously relied on to carry our economy cannot be relied on anymore. Sectors other than mining need to step up and fill the productivity gaps because we desperately need to turn our declining productivity around.

Robotics, automation and artificial intelligence provide real opportunities for Australian businesses to achieve this objective. Referring back to Jim Stanford’s report again, Dr Stanford asserts that investment in capital equipment and machinery is essential because labour-saving or labour-replacing technologies result in the growth of labour productivity. With strong macroeconomic management, through supportive government policies, concrete fiscal measures to encourage investment and expansionary strategies, coupled with renewed investment in technology, mechanisation and R&D, Australia can achieve a turnaround in productivity growth.

Dr Stanford also points out that the superior innovation performance of other countries (like Germany, Korea and Japan) has not translated into mass technology-induced unemployment, instead these countries have demonstrated stronger labour market outcomes.

A simple theoretical example can help to explain this: Let’s say XYZ Co. manufactures doodads and employs 10 people on the factory floor. The company invests in a robot, which displaces 3 jobs. The automation allows XYZ to increase production by 30%, enabling it to land a huge contract that it would never have been able to fulfil without automation. The increased profitability enables XYZ to expand its product range and open a new factory line, employing another 5 people and a robot. Net gain = 2 jobs and counting!

4. Robots will enhance our quality of life

On a macro level, adoption of robotic technologies, automation and AI could have a profound effect on our individual lifestyles – provided that government constructively manages the effects of labour-saving technologies through labour market and macroeconomic policy.

To illustrate what I mean by this, let me quote Jim Stanford once again: “Since mechanisation makes it possible to produce more total output with less work, one way to capture the potential social benefits from that technology is to reduce average working hours … Shorter working time can be attained through many different avenues: including a shorter work day, a 4-day work week, more annual leave, opportunities for mid-career family and education leaves, earlier retirement, and other measures.“

I like they way Jim is thinking!

Again, this isn’t necessarily an example of where robots will create jobs, however, increasing business investment in technology and innovation will have a positive impact on overall prosperity and would enable policy makers to focus on better serving the interests of those Australians employed in relatively menial, low-tech, poorly-paid and often-insecure jobs, particularly in sectors like retail, hospitality and personal services that cannot be automated.

Refocussing labour market policy around enhancing social outcomes for Australian workers would also balance out the inequality in working hours that has resulted from the past growth of part-time and irregular work in Australia.

5. Robots are dumb

I mean no disrespect to the extraordinary engineers and technologists who have imagined and then created mind-boggling innovations like Shakey, the world’s first robot to embody artificial intelligence. It is truely remarkable what technological advances can achieve, however, we are still a very long way from human-like robots despite what the movies and YouTube demonstrations want us to believe.

An article published by QUTs Institute for Future Environments notes that “Most factory-based machines are ‘dumb’, blindly picking up familiar objects that appear in pre-determined places at just the right moment. … What is obvious to humans has to be programmed into a machine …“

So, when you see Boston Dynamic’s Atlas and Handle robots performing gob-smackingly impressive manoeuvres, remember they are only doing what they have been specifically programmed to do. As is Makr Shakr, who doesn’t quite live up to my expectations of a bartender – missing from any interaction with this robotic marvel is a smile of recognition, an empathetic ear accompanied by philosophical rhetoric and a jovial discourse over which elixir might satisfy my mood!

So, don’t panic just yet. Robots are a long way off replacing humans.

Contribute to the positive narrative

This is a big moment in time for Australian businesses and it is critical for us to shift the narrative around robotics. Leaders need to feel encouraged to dig deep and take advantage of the opportunities this crisis has presented. Now is the time to position businesses for post-COVID success. Now is the time to invest in robotics, turbo-charge productivity and drive new employment opportunities.

If you are in the process of planning your post-COVID recovery and robotics are on the agenda, think about how you will engage with your workforce. Make sure you extract value from their vast collective experience. Empower them to share in the decision-making surrounding new technology because this will go a long way to ensuring the deployment is a success.

And, with a talent shortage in Australia and the demand for tech and digital skills growing across all functions, also think about your strategy to build talent within your existing workforce. Identify where there are opportunities for reskilling, upskilling, refocussing non-technical talent and redeploying workers into other, potentially new, areas of the business. Leverage these opportunities.

So, how are your post-COVID plans shaping up? Are you helping to shift the narrative around robots? I’d love for you to contact me and let me know.